Thursday, November 23, 2006

Bears, bulls and forests

Here is a quick definition of bull and bear market. I haev heard these terms so often, but hardly had the time to check!!

In the investment arena, financial markets are commonly believed to have market trends that can be classified as primary trends, secondary trends (short-term), and secular trends (long-term).

Primary trend: A bull market is a prolonged period of time when prices are rising in a financial market faster than their historical average, in contrast to a bear market which is a prolonged period of time when prices are falling. Investors can be described as having bullish (bull = buy) or bearish (bear = sell) sentiments. Upward market trends are witnessed when bulls (buyers) outnumber bears (sellers) - downward for vice versa.

Secondary trend: A secondary trend is a temporary change in price within a primary trend. These usually last a few weeks to a few months. A temporary decrease during a bull market is called a correction; a temporary increase during a bear market is called a bear market rally.

A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 20 years, and consists of sequential primary trends. In a secular bull market the bear markets are smaller than the bull markets. Typically, each bear market does not wipe out the gains of the previous bull market, and the next bull market makes up the losses of the bear market. Vice versa for secular bear market.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Finance industry in a nutshell

Well, I was not that great in following finance markets. Now that we are in Ox hearing about and attending all these finance lectures - here are a few short definitions (courtesy: wikipedia.com). These are in no way comprehensive, but a good start..

Private equity is a broad term that refers to any type of equity investment in an asset in which the equity is not freely tradable on a public stock market. Passive institutional investors may invest in private equity funds, which are in turn used by private equity firms for investment in target companies. Categories of private equity investment include leveraged buyout, venture capital, growth capital, angel investing, mezzanine capital and others. Private equity funds typically control management of the companies in which they invest, and often bring in new management teams that focus on making the company more valuable.

Venture capital is capital typically provided by outside investors for financing of new, growing or struggling businesses. Venture capital investments generally are high risk investments but offer the potential for above average returns. A venture capitalist (VC) is a person who makes such investments.

Investment banks help companies and governments and their agencies to raise in raising funds in the capital markets (both equity and debt)

The capital market (securities markets) is the market for securities, where companies and the government can raise long-term funds. The capital market includes the stock market and the bond market.

An angel investor is an affluent individual who provides capital for a business start-up, usually in exchange for ownership equity. Unlike venture capitalists, angels typically do not manage the pooled money of others in a professionally-managed fund. However, angel investors often organize themselves into angel networks or angel groups to share research and pool their own investment capital

Generally, a hedge fund is a lightly regulated private investment fund often characterized by unconventional investment strategies and often making use of legal structures (sometimes offshore) to mitigate the effects of local regulation and tax regimes. In contrast to regular investment funds, which are usually limited to only being able to "go long" (buy) instruments such as bonds, equities or money markets, hedge funds also have the ability to "short" (sell) instruments which they believe will fall in price. In this way, hedge funds are able to create more complex investment structures which can, for example, profit in times of market volatility, or even in a falling market. In finance, a hedge is an investment that is taken out specifically to reduce or cancel out the risk in another investment.

The phrase mergers and acquisitions or M&A refers to the aspect of corporate finance strategy and management dealing with the merging and acquiring of different companies. Historically, Investment Banks (intermediaries which assist companies in selling ownership of themselves as stock or borrowing money directly from investors in the form of bonds) have been closely associated with merger and acquisition activity since a M&A is a sales opportunity for the Investment Bank. If the company wants to merge with another, it must attain a fair market value for its shares to be swapped which would involve an investment bank. If it wants to buy the other company with borrowed money, it would most likely borrow directly from investors in the form of bonds through a private placement, engineered by the investment bank. Thus, Investment Banks position themselves to act as advisors on mergers and acquisitions.

Monday, November 13, 2006

How much am I worth?

Well... I am used to staying long in the Oxford library (they close at 11:00 PM and I am the last one to leave, er.. be pushed out).

One of my friend, who saw me leave late everyday quipped, "Hey man, you are like furniture in our library. Probably we should depreciate you over the next few months". Now that is what I call - 'Going crazy with studies'. :))

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Class photo

Well , thanks to Tiwari and Saitosan, here are our pics from photo shoot..




And this our common roon (canteen)... looks so nice, isn't it? Well, hot water costs 20 pence here.



And this is how our classes look... did I tell you? each class is 3.5 hours long!!! (god mercied on us with a 20 min break in-between)


Sunday, November 05, 2006

FTSE and JW linked

Here is the funniest academic story you would have ever heard. The MBA Decision science class is tutored by Prof. James Taylor. He is one of the funniest, yet clever and knowledgeable, professors I have ever seen.

This past week he taught about multiple regression (don’t worry about the term) and he wet to explain his work in trying to define a relation between FTSE and JW. FTSE is the financial share index. The equation was something like FTSE100t = 7039.60 – 210.89JWt + et

He seemed to be so proud of his statistical analysis and derivation. We went onto to validate the analysis (there are some set parameters like t-stat, r square, etc). Everything seemed to be just great and the whole class was kind of appreciating his efforts.

He slowly turned back and asked the class, “Why didn’t anyone ask me what is JW? Let me how you what JW is made of. He then switched on the other display which showed both his kids on the sofa. JW is apparently Jake’s Weight – they have been weighing his son’s weight every month and he was trying to correlate Jake’s Weight and FTSE index.

We laughed at being fooled so easily. The moral of he story: Be careful when you try to correlate two “trendy” variables. He sure is genius, isn’t he?

Friday, November 03, 2006

Bhagavat gita in Management

Karma Capitalism from Business Week

Wonderful article. The article was so close to me, since I was an ardent follower of Bhagavat Gita, have heard greatly abt half the Management gurus listed in this article... and can relate to these US companies and India n culture. Question to ponder: Is old returning back?